Cook Political Report Moves Rep. Carter's Seat from "Solid Republican: to "Likely Republican" [#TXPolitics 24/7]

The respected Cook Political Report has moved Rep. John Carter's 31st Congressional Seat from being "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."

The news (behind paywall, here) is likely to rattle the campaign of the 8-term Republican, along with local GOPers who are already concerned about the impact of his Democratic opponent M.J. Hegar's slick campaign video, which is generating excitement among Democrats across the nation, including in Hollywood, where it's rumored that Angelina Jolie is set to play the heroic fighter pilot's life story in a film.

Of course, the campaign of the retired Air Force pilot and national Democrats are actively using the video to raise funds. Hegar had raised just shy of $500k with $117k on hand at the start of May. Carter had raised nearly $749k and his coffers had $350k on hand.

While the seat does remain comfortably Republican (it was won by Pres. Trump by 53% in 2016) it's trending Bluer, with Romney taking 60% in 2012, the Report notes.

The search-and-rescue pilot won a Purple Heart and Distinguished Flying Cross for valor after her helicopter was shot down and ambushed in Afghanistan in 2009. She wrote a book about her exploits, "Shoot Like a Girl," which hit the bestseller list. The video features her struggle to overturn a rule barring women from serving in combat positions, and Carter's alleged failure to help her when she reached out as a visitor to Washington, D.C.

The Cook Report says she will likely emphasize to voters that she grew up the 31st CD and was a Republican in her youth. We'll add that while Republicans will avoid attacking (or even mentioning) her exemplary military record, they're already quietly pointing out that she has only recently moved back to the district. Democrats may also emphasize Carter's lack of military service, which might sway the many personnel and veterans living near Fort Hood, which is located in the district.

The Report throws some doubt on whether Carter, now 77, will be prepared for the upcoming vigors of the race. The GOP primary had him facing an unknown opponent who mustered over 35% of the vote and spent less than $60k.